New Section 232 tariffs take effect December 4, 2026, and module prices are expected to rise in 2027 for both imported modules and modules assembled in the United States.
During our October Strong Tail Solar Alliance webinar on pricing, tariffs, and supply chains, Joe Francolino, Head of Sales at Krannich Solar USA, priced two 10 kW systems. The cash/loan system came to $6,600 in equipment, compared with $13,208 for a system built to domestic content requirements.
Both systems are expected to cost more next year, but the difference between them is unlikely to change much. Cash/loan systems should remain the lower-cost option for homeowners.
What did the two systems cost in 2026?
Joe priced both systems on the Krannich webshop. Each is 10 kW DC and includes modules, inverters and racking only. Neither includes storage or the rest of the balance of system.
The two systems aren't identical apart from domestic content compliance. Joe chose different modules, inverters and racking for each, so some of the difference reflects those equipment choices.
Joe noted that Qcells pricing has come down slightly since he pulled that quote. Even with $0.10/W taken off the Qcells modules, the domestic content system would still come to $1.22/W.
This matches what we found in June, when we compared three 12 kW quotes side by side. The TPO-compliant system cost considerably more once equipment was included.
Why does domestic content equipment cost more?
Lease and PPA providers require equipment from approved vendor lists. Those lists follow domestic content and foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules, because the TPO provider claims the investment tax credit, including the 10% domestic content bonus. Cash/loan projects don't have those restrictions, so installers can choose the best-value tier 1 equipment.
The rules become stricter in 2027. For projects that begin construction that year, the domestic content threshold rises from 50% to 55%, and the FEOC requirement also tightens. We've seen this in one industry summary of the rules, so confirm the details with your TPO partner.
Why will domestic modules also cost more in 2027?
Section 232 isn't limited to imported modules. Proclamation 11052 sets minimum import prices across the supply chain:
An additional 15% tariff applies to everything except polysilicon. That affects domestic module prices in four ways.
Most US module factories still use imported cells. As of Q3 2026, the United States had about 75 GW of module assembly capacity but only about 10.6 GW of cell manufacturing capacity, so many US-assembled modules use imported cells that now carry the cell floor and tariff. Roth Capital estimates those modules will cost about $0.40/W, roughly $0.11/W more than before the tariffs. Intertek CEA puts them at $0.38 to $0.44/W, and US modules with US cells at $0.45 to $0.50/W.
US cell makers need imported wafers and polysilicon. The wafer and polysilicon floors raise costs for cell manufacturers that use imported materials.
Domestic components are in short supply. With imports no longer competitive, manufacturers are competing for the same limited supply of US-made components. When we asked Joe where the Qcells price goes once the tariffs take effect, he pointed to that shortage: "People can't find domestic glass. They can't find domestic silica." He described early 2027 as "a tricky time" when "you have all these manufacturers trying to gobble up the same limited supply of components." The estimates he's heard for domestic products range from an additional $0.07/W to $0.15/W, at least in the short term.
Demand for domestic content modules is going up. The stricter 2027 domestic content rules increase demand for qualifying equipment at the same time supply is limited. Anza, an equipment marketplace, lists only about 12 GW of domestic cell modules for 2027 delivery, and at least one supplier has told Anza that its 2027 domestic content supply is sold out.
How will Section 232 affect cash/loan equipment?
The modules most installers use on cash/loan projects are also expected to cost more. Charlie Saginaw of JA Solar expects modules in the low $0.30s/W today to reach the mid $0.40s/W by the first or second quarter of 2027, and Roth Capital estimates an average increase of about $0.10/W across module types.
Distributors still have inventory purchased before the tariffs, so installers who plan ahead with their distributor may keep current pricing into early 2027. We cover the timeline and what to do before prices rise in Section 232 and Solar Module Prices in 2027: What Local Installers Should Expect.
What will the gap look like in 2027?
The table below applies those estimates to the modules in Joe's two systems. The low case uses the bottom of each range and the high case uses the top.
These are our estimates based on current forecasts, not quotes. Pricing data from larger commercial and utility buyers shows a smaller premium for some US-made modules, so the difference will vary by product and by buyer.
Because both types of modules are expected to rise, the difference in module cost on a 10 kW system stays between about $3,400 and $3,900, close to the $3,900 difference today. That's before the higher cost of domestic content inverters and racking, which made up the rest of the $6,608 difference in Joe's quote.
Related: Do solar leases beat loans on monthly payments? Run the numbers
What does it cost to run two equipment sets?
Charlie sees a gap of about $0.20 to $0.25/W between JA modules and domestic content options like Qcells. "But larger than that," he said, "is the actual operational complexity of keeping your cash and loan jobs separate from your TPO jobs." Including those costs, he puts the difference closer to $0.50 to $0.70/W.
For a local installer selling both, those costs show up in a few places:
Inventory. You stock or order two sets of modules, inverters and racking, which ties up cash and warehouse space.
Training. Your crews install and troubleshoot two inverter platforms, and your service team supports both.
Financing requirements. Each TPO provider has its own approved vendor list, documentation and payment schedule. The timing of those payments affects how much working capital you need to keep projects moving.
Incompatible equipment. Equipment bought for one TPO provider may not be on another provider's list. Charlie has seen installers switch financing partners and get stuck with equipment that doesn't qualify: "Now you have modules that are literally double the price, with inverters that are double the price, but don't fit this new financing company."
When comparing financing options, it also helps to look at loan terms. Our guide to how community bank solar loans compare covers fees, terms and what to ask a lender.
Join the Strong Tail Solar Alliance
The Strong Tail Solar Alliance brings together equipment suppliers, software providers and financing partners to help local and regional installers lower their costs on cash/loan projects. Membership is free and includes:
- JA Solar: save up to 10% on JA Solar modules
- Krannich Solar: up to $0.15/W off your next residential job
- Climate First Bank: solar loans up to 30.5 years with no dealer fees, so homeowners can replace a rising electricity bill with a lower, fixed monthly loan payment
- Scanifly: 20% off, plus your first drone free
- Damaris Solutions: 20% off solar marketing services
- Bodhi: customer experience software at no cost
Financing is subject to Climate First Bank's installer approval process.
Complete the form below to join, and our team will follow up.
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