New Section 232 tariffs take effect December 4, 2026, but most local installers won't see module prices increase immediately. Distributors still have inventory purchased before the tariffs, and prices will rise as that inventory runs out.
During our October Strong Tail Solar Alliance webinar on pricing, tariffs, and supply chains, Charlie Saginaw, Southwest Regional Sales Manager at JA Solar, explained how he expects prices to change over the next several months.
He anticipates a transition period through January, possibly into February, when distributors can continue offering modules at or near current prices. After that, prices could increase substantially.
For local installers, this creates both a risk and an opportunity. Higher module costs could reduce margins on projects you've already sold. But they also give homeowners a reason to move forward now rather than waiting until next year.
What's changing on December 4?
On August 6, 2026, President Trump signed Proclamation 11052, establishing new import pricing requirements and tariffs on solar products entering the United States beginning December 4.
The new rules have two components.
First, they establish a minimum import price (MIP) for solar materials and equipment. If a product enters the country below that price, the importer pays a tariff covering the difference.
Second, they add another 15% tariff.
The minimum import prices are:
These requirements affect the entire solar supply chain, not just imported modules. Even panels assembled in the United States could become more expensive because many manufacturers still rely on imported cells and other materials.
For imported modules, the new requirements could bring costs into the low $0.40s/W before freight and distributor margins.
The exact landed cost is still uncertain because the proclamation doesn't clearly specify how the additional 15% tariff will be calculated. More clarity is expected once U.S. Customs publishes its guidance.
In September, the Commerce Department also introduced temporary restrictions to prevent importers from stockpiling equipment ahead of December 4. Importers bringing in significantly more than their historical volumes could be prevented from entering those goods before the deadline, while new importers were limited to 55 modules per week.
These restrictions could reduce the amount of lower-cost inventory available to distributors after the tariffs take effect.
How much could module prices increase?
Charlie expects module prices to increase from the low $0.30s/W today to the mid $0.40s/W by the first or second quarter of 2027.
That estimate is consistent with industry forecasts. Roth Capital projects an average increase of approximately $0.10/W across module types, while Intertek CEA estimates post-tariff spot prices of around $0.46/W.
For a typical 10 kW residential installation, here's what that could mean:
The current price is based on a quote shared by Joe Francolino of Krannich Solar USA during our webinar. The Q2 price is an estimate.
An additional $1,400 in equipment costs can make a meaningful difference in a project's profitability.
And if you've already sold the project at a fixed price, that additional cost comes directly out of your margin.
For example, a project sold in November may not be installed until March. If you wait until installation to purchase the equipment, you could end up paying substantially more than you originally budgeted.
Related: Managing Project Risk and Working Capital as a Local Installer
When will module prices increase?
Although the tariffs take effect December 4, the impact on installers will depend on how quickly distributors sell through their existing inventory.
Charlie described a temporary period of relatively stable pricing that he called a "soft landing." Distributors that purchased modules before the tariffs and weren't the importer of record can continue selling that inventory without the new tariffs affecting their original purchase costs.
He expects that period to last until approximately January 30, potentially extending into February.
However, installers purchasing modules without an advance agreement could start seeing higher prices as early as January 1.
Here's how pricing could change over the next year:
These are forecasts rather than guaranteed prices. Actual costs and timing will vary by distributor and manufacturer.
Wood Mackenzie has suggested the full impact of the tariffs could take longer to reach the market because the United States has more than a year's worth of module inventory.
However, much of that inventory is held by large utility-scale buyers. It doesn't necessarily reflect the residential modules available through local distributors.
That's why it's important to speak directly with your equipment suppliers about their inventory and pricing expectations.
Four things installers should do before prices increase
Solar installers have dealt with pricing deadlines before, particularly when federal tax incentives were scheduled to decrease or expire.
In 2019, the federal residential solar tax credit was scheduled to drop from 30% to 26%. Homeowners who wanted the full credit had an incentive to install before the end of the year.
Residential installations reached a then-record 712 MW in Q3 2019, and SEIA and Wood Mackenzie attributed much of that growth to the upcoming tax credit reduction.
We saw an even larger effect in 2025, ahead of the December 31 expiration of the residential solar tax credit. EnergySage described the resulting increase in demand as one of the largest the industry had experienced, with most installers reporting that they had reached their annual installation capacity by October.
During our webinar, I asked Charlie whether installers could use the upcoming Section 232 price increases in the same way they've used previous tax credit deadlines.
"Scott, that's spot on," he said.
The potential increase in module costs is similar in size to the 2019 tax credit reduction, although considerably smaller than the 2025 expiration.
There's one important difference. The tax credit changes directly affected homeowners. The Section 232 tariffs initially affect installers through higher equipment costs.
But as those costs get passed along, homeowners could end up paying more for the same solar installation.
That creates an opportunity for installers to encourage customers to make a decision while current prices are still available.
Here are four ways to prepare.
1. Lock in pricing for projects you've already sold
Start by reviewing every project under contract that hasn't been installed.
Identify the expected installation date and number of modules needed for each project. Then work with your distributor to determine whether you can reserve equipment at current prices.
Prioritize projects scheduled for the first quarter of 2027.
The goal is to protect your margins on projects you've already sold rather than having higher equipment costs reduce your profits.
2. Tell homeowners that solar prices are expected to increase in January
The potential price increase gives homeowners a practical reason to move forward sooner rather than later.
Installers who purchase modules as needed could begin seeing higher prices in January. By Q1 or Q2, module costs could increase by $0.10 to $0.15/W, or approximately $1,000 to $1,500 on a typical 10 kW system.
For homeowners considering solar, that's a meaningful difference.
Charlie recommended presenting customers with two options: what their system would cost at today's equipment prices and what it could cost after the new tariffs affect the market.
As he described it: "This is where we are now. This is where we'll be post Section 232. You decide."
It's a straightforward way to explain the financial benefit of moving forward now without creating artificial urgency.
Joe made a similar point. Installers have successfully used upcoming tax credit changes to encourage homeowners to make purchasing decisions. The same approach can work with equipment price increases.
The key is to communicate the expected increase clearly and make sure you're able to honor the pricing you're offering.
For more on presenting proposals, see How to Provide Better Solar Proposals and Win More Deals.
3. Share your Q1 equipment forecast with your distributor
Even if you don't have every project under contract, provide your distributor with a realistic estimate of what you'll need in the first quarter.
Joe Francolino of Krannich Solar emphasized the importance of planning ahead during our webinar.
"If you put a projection in and said, hey, I think this is what I'm going to need, I will fight very hard to keep that price exactly the same," he said.
Distributors have more flexibility to maintain pricing when they know what installers need in advance.
If you wait until you're ready to pick up equipment, you may have little choice but to pay the prevailing market price.
4. Review how long your proposals remain valid
If your proposals are valid for 30 days, a quote issued in December could remain open after equipment prices increase.
Review your proposal terms and consider shortening the validity period during this transition.
You can also include a specific date through which pricing is guaranteed, based on your distributor's inventory and commitments.
That helps protect your margins while giving homeowners a clear understanding of when pricing may change.
Will module prices come back down?
There's reason to believe prices could eventually decrease, although it may take another year or two.
The United States now has approximately 75 GW of module assembly capacity, significantly more than the country installs annually.
With that much domestic capacity, manufacturers will be competing for market share. Combined with federal manufacturing tax credits, that competition could eventually bring prices for U.S.-assembled modules back toward $0.30/W, according to Intertek CEA.
However, domestic solar cell production remains a major limitation.
As of Q3 2026, the United States had approximately 10.6 GW of operational cell manufacturing capacity, far less than its module assembly capacity.
That means many domestic manufacturers still depend on imported cells, which are also subject to the new tariffs.
The Commerce Department also has the authority to adjust the minimum import prices, creating additional uncertainty about future equipment costs.
Joe expects prices could decrease as domestic manufacturing expands, but believes it may take a year or two for the supply chain to adjust.
For now, installers should plan for higher module costs through at least the first half of 2027 rather than assuming prices will come back down quickly.
Start planning for 2027 now
Section 232 may not affect the price you pay for modules on December 4, but it could have a significant impact on your equipment costs in the months that follow.
For local installers, the priority should be protecting margins on projects you've already sold and working with distributors to secure pricing for upcoming installations.
At the same time, the anticipated price increase gives homeowners another reason to make a decision before the end of the year.
Through the Strong Tail Solar Alliance, we're working with partners like JA Solar and Krannich Solar to help local installers access competitive equipment pricing and purchasing terms.
We're also helping installers manage project cash flow through solar financing from Climate First Bank.
If you'd like to learn more about how we can support your business, schedule a Bodhi + OneEthos call.
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