What will happen in residential solar in 2026? 10 predictions

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January 9, 2026

‍TL;DR: 2026 will be a fundamentals year for residential solar: higher bills and consumer pressure will reward installers who execute flawlessly with clear timelines, proactive communication, and strong support. Supply will stay messy (tariffs/FEOC/domestic content constraints), while resilience drives storage attach rates, VPPs go more mainstream, and AI becomes invisible workflow infrastructure. In a tighter market, repeat customers (upgrades, service, referrals) become the cheapest growth engine—and the next category leader will be the team that turns trust into predictable delivery and repeat revenue.

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Last year, I made predictions for 2025.

Some were directionally right. Some were hilariously off. And then a policy plot twist showed up like a raccoon in your attic. Unexpected, loud, and suddenly everyone is rearranging their plans.

But here’s the thing about predictions: they’re not about being “right.” They’re about forcing yourself to name the forces that will matter, and then building the kind of business that can survive them even when the forecast changes overnight.

So yes: I’m making 2026 predictions.

And no: I’m not pretending these are “hot takes.” They’re mostly the opposite. They’re about the unsexy fundamentals that suddenly become everything when incentives shift, rates stay high, and homeowners are more anxious than your average project manager during a permitting backlog.

If 2025 was the “deadline year,” 2026 looks like the “fundamentals year.”

Here are 10 predictions for residential solar in 2026—and what I think they’ll mean for operators in the real world.

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1) Consumer backlash builds

First, the kind of backlash we all recognize: when the industry is sprinting to hit an end-of-year deadline, some customers inevitably fall through the cracks even when installers are working their butts off. There will be backlash because some customers didn’t meet the deadline they were promised and won’t qualify for the tax credit.

But the bigger backlash I’m talking about for 2026 is broader, and it’s coming from the rising cost of electricity (and everything housing-related). Homeowners are going to look at their monthly bill and ask, “Why is this going up again?” And when they hear that AI data centers and other large loads are driving demand growth, they’ll know why.

EIA expects wholesale power prices to keep rising into 2026, including a projected 23% increase in 2025 vs. 2024 across major markets, followed by another increase in 2026. In places like Texas, the increases can be much sharper. EIA highlighted a projected 45% jump at ERCOT North.

That’s the backlash: higher bills, more volatility, and the feeling that the system isn’t working for the homeowner. And when consumers feel squeezed, they start looking for ways to “pull the cord” to exposure to rate hikes and regain control. In 2026, that search for control will push more homeowners toward solar + storage, not as a nice-to-have, but as a practical escape hatch.

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2) Supply chain stays messy

The supply chain story in solar is never just “Do we have panels?” It’s the whole sequence: equipment availability, substitutions, scheduling, utility timelines, interconnection, inspection, commissioning. Any one of those gets weird, and the homeowner feels it as “nobody knows what’s going on.”

In 2026, I don’t think the mess goes away. It just changes shape. Tariffs and FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) rules will keep throwing wrenches into what’s available, when it’s available, and what it costs. And even “domestic” won’t automatically mean “easy to source.” U.S. module capacity has grown fast. SEIA puts it at 42.1 GW by the end of 2024, but a lot of U.S.-made crystalline-silicon modules are still assembled with imported cells while domestic cell production ramps. So yes, some equipment may qualify for domestic content incentives on paper… but will it actually be in stock when you need it? And at what price premium?

That uncertainty turns procurement into a last-minute scramble, and homeowners end up riding the ripple effects. If last year felt like a race to find “the right” equipment before deadlines, 2026 will feel like the sequel—same headache, new rules.

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3) Resilience wins deals

Resilience is no longer niche. It’s mainstream, emotional, and easy to understand: “I want my house to work when the grid doesn’t.”

And the data keeps supporting the idea that outages are not some rare edge case. The EIA reported U.S. customers averaged about 11 hours without power in 2024, nearly double the annual average of the prior decade. This was driven heavily by major storms.

In a post-25D world, resilience becomes one of the strongest “non-tax-credit” reasons to buy. Not because homeowners suddenly became preppers. Because they’re tired of feeling powerless (literally) when weather hits and the grid wobbles.

But there’s a catch. It’s the same catch as always: resilience sells, resilience support retains. If you sell a homeowner peace of mind and then disappear after permission to operate (PTO), you didn’t sell resilience. You sold anxiety with a battery attached.

In 2026, the best teams will market resilience and operationalize it: clear education, clean commissioning, proactive monitoring, and support that doesn’t treat every battery question like an inconvenience.

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4) Systems will get smaller

In 2026, a quiet shift happens: residential systems get smaller because most homeowners buy based on total out-of-pocket spend.

If the 30% federal tax credit disappears, the same pre-incentive system suddenly feels a lot more expensive. Losing a 30% credit means homeowners would need to spend about 43% more out-of-pocket to buy the same system as before. That is a recipe for downsizing.

We have seen this pattern before. As solar got cheaper over time, systems got bigger. Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun reports the median new residential system reached 7.4 kW in 2023, with most installs falling roughly in the 5–11 kW range. Roll the clock back to when solar was much more expensive and systems were smaller. One U.S. market trends report shows the average residential PV system was 5.7 kW in 2010.

So in a post-credit world, don’t be surprised if “standard” drifts downward. You will see fewer 10–12 kW systems and more 6–8 kW systems designed to keep the total price in a familiar comfort zone. Homeowners will still want savings and control. Many will just buy less of it to stay within budget.

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5) Customer support gets love

Customer support has been the forgotten sibling of growth in solar. Everyone funds lead gen. Everyone obsesses over close rates. Support is what you staff when the phones get too loud.

That is changing because the market is forcing it to change.

When a downcycle hits, the companies that survive are the ones who stop bleeding cash through cancellations, chargebacks, escalations, and service chaos. And a surprising amount of that comes down to support.

You can even see this in the public narrative around larger players: improvements in service backlog and escalated complaints are now treated like headline-worthy business performance.

In 2026, support won’t “get love” because the industry got sentimental. It’ll get love because operators finally connect the dots: support is not a cost center. It’s reputation insurance. It’s referral fuel. It’s how you protect margin when you can’t afford to buy your way out of problems.

The winners will shift from reactive support (“answer the angry calls”) to proactive support (“prevent the call”). That means clear milestones, automatic project updates, and giving homeowners a reliable way to check status without calling the office.

Most support problems are communication problems wearing a trench coat.

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6) AI becomes invisible

In 2026, AI won’t be a feature you point at. It’ll be infrastructure.

That’s already happening across the economy. The St. Louis Fed has tracked rapid growth in generative AI adoption over a short window. 37% of adults use generative AI for their work. McKinsey’s work also reflects a world where more companies are moving from pilots to scaled usage and where “high performers” are the ones building real operating muscle around AI rather than sprinkling it like seasoning.

In solar, the big AI opportunity isn’t “chatbots” as a gimmick. It’s leverage in the mundane moments that decide whether your business feels calm or chaotic: generating personalized proposals and designs, drafting clear homeowner updates, routing issues correctly, flagging projects that are drifting, and helping your team answer questions consistently without burning out.

When AI works, it disappears into the workflow. Nobody claps. Things just… work.

That’s the bar for 2026: less AI theater, more AI that quietly makes your business feel more predictable to homeowners and easier to run internally.

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7) Repeat customers drive growth

If customer acquisition stays expensive, your most efficient growth engine becomes the people who already trust you.

This isn’t philosophical. It’s math.

McKinsey has cited residential solar customer acquisition costs (CAC) that approached $10,000 per sale for some companies in the U.S. And EnergySage reporting suggests a wide marketing CAC range among installers with a meaningful chunk above $2,000. Either way, the trend is clear: paid growth is under pressure.

So in 2026, repeat customers become the sales engine because the economics are simply better. HBR estimates new customer acquisition can cost 5–25x more than sales to existing customers. So every ‘second sale’ you can earn from a trusted homeowner effectively comes with a much lower CAC. Expansion, batteries added later, EV chargers, service plans, monitoring upgrades, referrals that actually convert. Repeat sales won’t be a “growth hack.” They’ll be the stabilizer for your business.

But repeat sales doesn’t come from clever email copy. It comes from trust. And trust is built during the install journey when homeowners decide whether you’re competent, honest, and present.

Install isn’t the finish line. It’s the relationship kickoff.

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8) VPPs go mainstream

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are moving from “pilot projects” to real momentum.

One clean signal: Sunrun reported a 400% increase in customer enrollment in its home-to-grid VPP programs, alongside rising storage attachment. That’s not a science experiment. That’s a business line.

Now, will VPPs still be messy in 2026? Absolutely. Program rules vary by utility. Incentives change. Homeowner understanding is uneven. But “messy and uneven” doesn’t mean “not real.” It means opportunity for the companies that can explain it simply and support it cleanly.

In 2026, storage sales will increasingly include a second conversation: “This battery can do more than backup.” The installers who can make that feel concrete and not confusing will have an edge.

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9) Flawless execution wins

This is the least exciting prediction and the one that tends to decide who survives.

When markets get tight, “brand” stops carrying the weight. Incentives change, leads get more expensive, and homeowners get more hesitant. In that environment, the winners are the companies that make the experience feel predictable: clear timelines, fewer surprises, clean handoffs, and communication that doesn’t vanish when something goes sideways.

We’ve seen this movie in other industries.

During the dot-com crash, a lot of high-flying companies didn’t die because the internet was a bad idea. They died because the math and the operations didn’t work. Pets.com shut down in 2000, and Webvan filed for bankruptcy in 2001. Both became symbols of “growth first, fundamentals later.” Amazon survived that same crash by building real operational infrastructure and a durable customer value proposition. Execution, not hype, became the moat.

Solar is entering its own version of that “execution era.” In 2026, the advantage shifts to the operators who can consistently deliver: fewer cancellations, fewer escalations, better reviews, and a homeowner journey that feels calm even when the backend is messy. Boring execution is the new premium brand—and it’s how you come out of a tough cycle stronger while others don’t make it.

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10) A new solar leader emerges

Downcycles create new category leaders. Not because the market hands them a trophy, but because shakeouts expose who actually has a durable operating model.

We’ve already watched big solar headlines turn into hard realities: bankruptcies, restructurings, “going concern” warnings, and the broader narrative shift that happens when household economics get tighter.

In 2026, a “bona fide” solar company wins by reliability, not volume: tight ops, disciplined marketing, diversified revenue, service expansion, and a homeowner experience that doesn’t fall apart under pressure.

That’s how a new leader emerges—less by branding, more by consistent delivery and homeowner trust.

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How to turn these 2026 solar predictions into an execution plan

If you’ve read this far and thought, “Yep… we’re feeling all of that,” you’re not alone.

2026 is going to reward teams that make solar feel predictable. That means tight operations, proactive communication, fewer escalations, stronger post-install support, and a repeatable way to turn trust into referrals and repeat revenue.

That’s exactly where Bodhi helps.

If you want a hand tightening the parts of your operation that protect revenue in a down market—customer communication, milestone updates, escalation prevention, review/referral flywheels, and AI-assisted support—reach out to us. We’re happy to compare notes, share what we’re seeing across the industry, and show you what “proactive customer experience at scale” can look like in practice.

Because the future doesn’t belong to the boldest forecast.

It belongs to the teams that execute when the forecast is wrong.

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FAQs

1) What are the biggest residential solar trends for 2026?
2026 looks like a “fundamentals year”: homeowners will reward companies that execute cleanly—clear timelines, proactive updates, and reliable support. At the same time, resilience and storage become more central to the buying decision, while supply uncertainty and policy constraints keep operations unpredictable. The winners will be the teams that make the process feel calm even when the backend is messy.

2) Why are electricity prices expected to keep rising in 2026?
Electricity prices rise when demand grows faster than supply, when fuel and capacity costs increase, and when utilities invest in grid upgrades that get recovered through rates. In many regions, load growth (including large new industrial and data-center demand) is increasing pressure on the system. For homeowners, that often shows up as higher bills and more volatility—exactly when “take control” solutions become more attractive.

3) How do AI data centers affect electricity demand and utility rates?
AI data centers are large, steady electricity consumers, and clusters of new data centers can materially increase regional load. When demand rises quickly, utilities may need new generation, transmission, and distribution upgrades—costs that can flow into rates over time. Even before infrastructure fully catches up, tighter supply-demand conditions can contribute to higher prices during peak periods.

4) What does “consumer backlash” mean in the context of residential solar?
It’s the growing frustration homeowners feel when household costs keep rising—especially electricity, insurance, and housing-related expenses. Some backlash also comes from the solar “deadline sprint” dynamic: when the industry rushes, a minority of customers can feel neglected or surprised by delays. In 2026, that broader cost pressure can push more homeowners to demand clear answers—and seek solutions that reduce exposure to rate hikes.

5) What is FEOC and how could it impact solar equipment availability?
FEOC (“Foreign Entity of Concern”) rules are designed to restrict or discourage certain supply chains tied to geopolitical and compliance risk. In practice, FEOC-related requirements can limit which components qualify for incentives or procurement preferences, and that can tighten supply options. The result is more uncertainty: what’s eligible, what’s available, and what it costs—often changing faster than installers want.

6) What does “domestic content” mean for solar, and why is availability a challenge?
“Domestic content” generally refers to meeting requirements for U.S.-made components to qualify for certain incentives or preferences. The challenge is that “domestic” can be more nuanced than it sounds—modules may be assembled in the U.S. while upstream components (like cells) are still ramping domestically. So even if a product qualifies on paper, availability, lead times, and price premiums can become the real constraint.

7) Why is resilience becoming the top sales driver for homeowners?
Resilience is simple and emotional: homeowners want their home to work when the grid doesn’t. Outages, extreme weather, and grid anxiety make backup power feel less like a luxury and more like insurance. In a world where incentives fluctuate, resilience remains an easy-to-understand reason to buy—and it tends to increase battery attach rates.

8) What are “storage attach rates,” and why do they matter?
Storage attach rate is the percentage of solar installs that include a battery. Higher attach rates usually increase revenue per project, but they also raise the bar for design, commissioning, homeowner education, and post-install support. In 2026, the differentiator won’t be “we sell batteries”—it’ll be “we deliver and support batteries smoothly.”

9) What is a Virtual Power Plant (VPP) and how does it work for homeowners?
A VPP is a program that aggregates many home batteries (and sometimes other devices) so they can help support the grid during peak demand. Homeowners typically enroll through an installer, manufacturer, or utility program and may receive incentives or payments depending on the program structure. VPPs are likely to grow, but availability and rules will still vary widely by state and utility.

10) How can Bodhi help solar companies execute better in 2026?
Bodhi helps solar teams deliver a clearer, more predictable homeowner experience—especially from contract to PTO and into support—through proactive communication, milestone visibility, and scalable workflows. The goal is fewer “what’s going on?” calls, fewer escalations, fewer cancellations, and more trust that turns into reviews, referrals, and repeat sales. In a tighter market, that operational consistency becomes a real competitive advantage.

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